KEY LABOR MARKET INDICATORS

Data: BLS Current Employment Statistics via FRED · Seasonally adjusted · Month-over-month change in thousands of jobs.

Credit Risk Dashboard

Comprehensive credit risk metrics across consumer, corporate, macro and alternative data — March 2026

Monthly composite of three signals: 50% MI Leading Economic Index (6-month annualised growth), 25% Market Breadth (net distress − strength), 25% US Consumer Confidence. Each signal is percentile-ranked against its own trailing history (higher percentile = more stress), then weighted-averaged to a 0–100 composite. Green — calm; red — stressed. Refreshes monthly when FRED publishes the latest LEI components and OECD Consumer Confidence (the 18th of each month @ 23:00 UTC); Market Breadth refreshes daily. Use the NYSE / NASDAQ / combined toggle above the breadth table below to change which exchange universe feeds the 25% breadth input.

8-component composite of leading economic indicators modelled on the Conference Board LEI methodology. All inputs pulled monthly from FRED. The 3Ds rule (Duration, Depth, Diffusion) lights a red recession signal when diffusion falls to 50 or below AND the six-month annualised growth rate falls to −6.0% or below. (Conference Board publishes −4.3% for their 10-component LEI; the MI-LEI variant drops the Leading Credit Index and ISM New Orders, so we recalibrate to −6.0% — the equivalent value derived from CB’s median-during-recession method on our 8-component series, 1992–2026.)

Grey vertical bands mark NBER-dated U.S. recessions (FRED series USREC).

MI-LEI is a custom 8-component composite computed monthly from FRED. Components and weights (renormalised from the Conference Board April 2008 standardisation factors after dropping ISM new orders and the Leading Credit Index, which are proprietary): Avg weekly hours mfg AWHMAN 36.8%, UMich consumer sentiment UMCSENT 20.5%, 10Y−Fed funds spread T10YFF 14.2%, New orders consumer goods ACOGNO 10.7%, S&P 500 SP500 5.0%, New orders nondef capex ex aircraft NEWORDER 4.7%, Initial jobless claims (inverted) ICSA 4.4%, Building permits PERMIT 3.6%. Monthly changes use the Conference Board symmetric percent-change formula 200·(xt−xt−1)/(xt+xt−1), except the 10Y−Fed funds spread, which uses the absolute first difference. Index rebased to 100 at the earliest period with all 8 components present. Cron: monthly on the 18th @ 23:00 UTC, after FRED’s building-permits release. Stored in mi_lei_snapshots with one row per period_month.

Counts how many common stocks sit near key technical extremes (52-week highs/lows and the 200-day moving average). Concentration near 52-week lows or below the 200d MA signals breadth-level distress; concentration at highs signals durable momentum. Captured daily before the US open from FMP. Use the toggle below to switch between NYSE, NASDAQ, and the combined NYSE + NASDAQ view — the same selection also drives the breadth component of the composite Market Stress Gauge above.

Breadth stress score formula: (distress − strength) / universe, where distress = at_52w_low + near_52w_low + below_200d_ma and strength = at_52w_high + near_52w_high + above_200d_ma. Score range [−1, +1] is normalized to 0–100 and percentile-ranked against the trailing 5 years of weekly snapshots stored in leading_indicators_snapshots. v1 ranks against a backfill built from today’s symbol list (survivorship bias acknowledged as a v1 limitation — historical delisted issues are not included). This breadth score is the 25% breadth input to the composite Market Stress Gauge above.

Amplitude-adjusted long-leading confidence indicator from the OECD’s composite leading-indicators system (FRED series USACSCICP02STSAM). The long-run mean is 100 — values above 100 indicate above-trend confidence, below 100 indicate below-trend. Confidence tends to roll over ahead of recessions, making this a useful complement to MI-LEI. Grey vertical bands mark NBER-dated U.S. recessions.

Grey vertical bands mark NBER-dated U.S. recessions (FRED series USREC). Dashed horizontal line at 100 is the long-run mean.

Source: OECD via FRED, series USACSCICP02STSAM. Refreshed monthly on the 18th @ 23:05 UTC. Stored in consumer_confidence_snapshots with one row per period_month. NBER recession bars come from FRED series USREC (monthly, stored in usrec_snapshots).