US Job Market Indicators — 5 Key BLS Series (2010–Present)

Quits Rate (white): % of workers voluntarily quitting each month. A rising quits rate signals worker confidence in finding better jobs (strong labour market). A falling rate — as seen since 2022 — signals workers are less willing to leave, suggesting labour market cooling.

Temp Help Employment (orange): Number of workers in temporary staffing jobs (thousands). A leading indicator — companies hire temps before permanent staff and cut temps first. A sustained decline in temp employment, as seen since 2022, historically precedes broader job losses.

Unemployment Rate (purple): The headline civilian unemployment rate (%). Lags other indicators but is the most watched benchmark. Rising unemployment confirms labour market deterioration already signalled by leading indicators.

Job Openings (red): Total JOLTS job openings (thousands). Peaked above 12 million in 2022 — an unprecedented level — and has since fallen sharply, signalling reduced employer demand for workers. Still elevated historically but trending toward pre-pandemic norms.

Continued Jobless Claims (green): Workers still receiving unemployment benefits (thousands). A high or rising number signals that laid-off workers are struggling to find new jobs — a sign of weakening labour demand and potential recessionary pressure.

Why these matter together: When quits rate falls, temp employment drops, job openings decline, and continued claims rise simultaneously, it builds a picture of a labour market losing momentum — which the Fed watches closely when setting interest rate policy.